Serbia's Student List Projected to Win 135 to 140 Seats in Record Turnout

Aleksandar Vucic admitted his defeat in Sunday's snap parliamentary elections, ceding power to a student-led movement that has mobilized opposition for nearly two years. The Serbian Progressive Party leader acknowledged the loss after vote samples indicated his list would secure 105 seats in the 250-member parliament. The opposing Student List was projected to take between 135 and 140 seats, marking a decisive shift in the country's political balance. Turnout for the vote reached its highest level in more than three decades, signaling a broad public mandate for change.

Vucic, who has dominated Serbian politics for over a decade, spoke to supporters to confirm the results. He stated, "It is clear that we have lost these elections." The student movement emerged from a specific tragedy on November 1, 2024, when 16 people died after a train station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad. What began as youth-led protests expanded into wider social unrest and eventually formed the Student List political platform. The group campaigned on a promise to fight corruption, depoliticize public institutions, and restore citizens' rights, with Ilija Srdanovic, a professor at the Faculty of Medicine in Novi Sad, serving as its campaign leader.

During the campaign, Vucic characterized the demonstrators, who included university professors, doctors, and workers, as "blockaders." He accused the group of attempting to destabilize Serbia. Vucic, born in Belgrade in 1970, entered politics in 1993 by joining the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party led by Vojislav Seselj. His early political record was defined by nationalist rhetoric, including a statement made in July 1995, nine days after the Srebrenica genocide, where he told parliament, "Kill one Serb, and we will kill 100 Muslims." Seselj was sentenced to 10 years in prison in 2018 for persecution and forcible transfer of non-Serbs during the Balkan wars. Seselj's son, Aleksandar, ran on Vucic's list in this election.

Vucic and Tomislav Nikolic founded the Serbian Progressive Party in 2008 after a split in the Radical Party, aiming to align with mainstream European politics. Journalist Safeta Bisevac noted that Vucic was initially less popular than Nikolic and served as the party's organizer. The party took power in 2012 with promises to combat corruption and organized crime. Bisevac described the results as modest while authorities expanded their control over institutions, media, and political life. Vucic served as first deputy prime minister from 2012 to 2014, then as prime minister, before becoming president in 2017 and winning re-election in 2022.

Under pressure from sustained protests, Vucic resigned in September and called for early elections, maintaining dominant influence over state policy until the vote. Bisevac observed that while Vucic made many promises, he established near-complete control over the state apparatus. The economy grew substantially during Vucic's tenure. Official data cited by Reuters shows unemployment dropping from 26 percent to between 8 and 9 percent, while nominal GDP nearly tripled to approximately 90 billion euros. Annual foreign direct investment rose from roughly 800 million euros in 2012 to a record 5.2 billion euros in 2024, alongside the construction of a network of modern motorways.

Despite these economic metrics, higher wages did not always translate to improved living standards, with cost of living and public debt remaining central to the political debate. Political scientist Dusko Radosavljevic stated that the students "simply gave a voice to the justified anger of citizens." He described the previous decade as one of "systematic pressure and the destruction of social institutions," noting that intelligence services spent more time monitoring political opponents while critical thinking was pushed out of public media.